Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the most bullish banks on the outlook for oil, has once again lowered its price forecasts amid increasing global supplies and waning demand.
The bank has dropped its Brent forecast for December to $86 a barrel, down from its previous estimate of $95 a barrel, according to a note to clients on Sunday. This is Goldman’s third downward revision in the last six months after having previously stood by its bullish $100-a-barrel prediction. Brent’s August contract settled at $74.79 a barrel on Friday.
“We have never been this wrong for this long without seeing evidence to change our views,” Jeff Currie, Goldman’s head of commodities research, said in a Bloomberg Television interview last week.
Supply increases from nations facing sanctions — Russia, Iran and Venezuela — are a key driver in the lower price outlook, according to Goldman. Russia supply production, in particular, has “nearly fully recovered” despite sanctions from Western countries.
Recession fears are also weighing on prices, with higher interest rates likely to be a “persistent headwind” to higher prices, wrote Goldman analysts including Callum Bruce and Currie in the note.